It may be a New Year, but in many countries, old worries remain.
Take the UK, for example. Brexit is as uncertain as ever and that’s unlikely to change any time soon. Not only have forecasts for economic growth in the country been tempered by the lack of a clear path for Brexit, the latest survey data from IHS Markit have served to underscore the worry felt by consumers and businesses, with the country’s dominant services sector close to stagnation during December
However, the UK isn’t the only country experiencing uncertainty as to how 2019 will unfold.
India has an interesting 12 months ahead as incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi must work hard to maintain his position, after recent state election results make the likelihood of a new leader a real possibility. However, Modi has begun 2019 with ideas and a plan to show his support of the large farming industry, which is unhappy with the lack of fiscal support from the Government.
Speaking at the India Science Congress this week, the India PM urged scientists to find low-cost solutions for ‘social good’, including the creation of more affordable and balanced agriculture industry and using big data analytics to improve crop yields for farmers with smaller holdings.
Introducing this element to the PM’s broader outlook for India’s economic development may always have been the plan. Although, there will likely be many who will say its merely a move to encourage more votes in an election year.
Regardless of the truth, this latest step is a further sign that Modi’s economic ambitions for the country remain front-and-centre.
Economic outlook
Even before this latest speech, the outlook for growth in the country was upbeat, particularly when compared with global competitors.
Despite some GDP forecast downgrades from the likes of Fitch Ratings and the OECD – to a still healthy 7.2% and 7.3% respectively – India is assessed to have outpaced China during 2018 and to do so again in 2019. India’s finance ministry, meanwhile, forecasts economic expansion of 7.8% during 2019, which would likely be similar to the average pace of growth across 2018, despite the slowdown to 7.1% in the third quarter.
Indeed, it appears that the third quarter GDP number is partly behind most of the forecast reductions, although other details also weigh. They include:
- Generally weaker global GDP outlook.
- Global trade worries.
- Liquidity squeeze.
Modi and his Government, however, are upbeat and standing firm on their positive outlook. Many would say, with good reason.
Despite the difficult global scenario, some developments have been in India’s favour. The high price of crude oil has receded, despite the sanctions against Iran. Meanwhile, the country has moved up the World Bank’s ‘ease of doing business’ rankings. And while there has been some disagreement over the Government’s demands for the Reserve Bank of India to relax some restrictions on weaker banks, inflation has remained under control.
The decision to remain firm on many fiscal elements of governance while creating a more supportive backdrop for businesses and consumers has been a core driver of the strong level of economic expansion across India. It appears that focus on moving forward with policies designed to encourage start-ups and innovation is very much still in place.
Modi told delegates at the Science Congress that following on from its success of improving its ‘ease of doing business’ score, it must now work to improve the ‘ease of living’ in India. That requires a broad-based plan; working to support businesses across every industry, supporting innovation and new ideas, job creation across every industry and providing a stronger and more reliable infrastructure for consumers.
At Routeget Technologies, we understand the importance of introducing innovative developments into an existing industry, which is why we believe the Eco Hotel industry is one that can help ensure India’s economic growth ambitions will succeed and even exceed expectations.
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